Search results for "Markov-switching model"
showing 3 items of 3 documents
Multiscale Model Selection for High-Frequency Financial Data of a Large Tick Stock by Means of the Jensen–Shannon Metric
2014
Modeling financial time series at different time scales is still an open challenge. The choice of a suitable indicator quantifying the distance between the model and the data is therefore of fundamental importance for selecting models. In this paper, we propose a multiscale model selection method based on the Jensen–Shannon distance in order to select the model that is able to better reproduce the distribution of price changes at different time scales. Specifically, we consider the problem of modeling the ultra high frequency dynamics of an asset with a large tick-to-price ratio. We study the price process at different time scales and compute the Jensen–Shannon distance between the original…
Fiscal Policy and Asset Price Cycles: Evidence from Four European Countries
2014
OS; International audience; We test for non-linear effects of asset prices on the fiscal policy of four major European economies (France, Italy, Spain and UK). We model government spending and revenue as time-varying transition probability Markovian processes (TVPMS), and find that: (i) in France and Italy, the impact of housing prices on government revenue is conditioned by the phase of the stock price cycle; (ii) a similar asymmetric pattern is found for the UK when considering the effect of stock price fluctuations on government revenue and spending vis-à-vis the troughs and peaks of aggregate wealth; and (iii) for Spain, a fall in government revenue is typically associated with a negati…
How Tick Size Affects the High Frequency Scaling of Stock Return Distributions
2014
We study the high frequency scaling of the distributions of returns for stocks traded at NASDAQ market as a function of the tick-to-price ratio. The tick-to-price ratio is a measure of an effective tick size. We find dramatic differences between distributions for assets with large and small tick-to-price ratio. The presence of returns clustering is evident for large tick size assets. The statistical differences between large and small tick size assets appear to reduce at higher time scales of observation. A possible way to explain returns dynamics for large tick size assets is the coupling of returns with bid-ask spread dynamics. A simple Markov- switching model is able to reproduce the pro…